Oil Consumption Model
AFS Trinity has developed an oil consumption model that estimates how much US oil consumption will change with various improvements in the fleet average fuel economy over time. Scenarios can be selected with different overall growth rates in oil consumption for all uses and different market penetration rates for conventional vehicles, standard hybrids and plug-in hybrids such as the Extreme Hybrid™.
This graph shows one forecast of US oil consumption by source (domestic, non-Middle East imports and Middle East imports). With high customer adoption of plug-in hybrids by 2016 we can reduce US oil consumption by an amount equivalent to what would be imported from the Middle East. In reality, the US will probably continue to obtain oil from a wide variety of sources on the world market.
Other Oil Model Scenarios:
To investigate your own “what-ifs”, click the button below to run our oil model with your own unique input assumptions:
Interactive Oil Model
AFS Trinity Power Corporation has developed an Oil Consumption Model that estimates the extent to which US oil consumption can be reduced through improvements in vehicular fuel economy. Scenarios can be selected with different growth rates in oil consumption and different market penetration rates for conventional vehicles, standard hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) such as AFS Trinity's Extreme Hybrid™ (XH™). To test your own assumptions, click the Begin Simulation button. Then enter your selected values for the different model variables. Your simulation results will be displayed in three charts. The first compares US oil consumption in million barrels per day (mbd) without hybrids, with conventional hybrids and with your choice of plug-in hybrid fuel economy and market penetration. The second chart is a pie chart showing how much of America's oil use in the last year of the simulation is from domestic production, mid-east imports and other imports. The third chart is a bar chart that shows the number of hybrid vehicles on the road by year as determined by the market penetration you selected.